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Tuesday 29 October 2019

Thought Experiment: Liga United

If you enjoy my content and want to express gratitude, I would be so happy if you made a contribution towards my Argentina trip in the summer of 2021. The plan is to go there for four weeks and look at everything football, development, coaching, and culture. Any amount helps. I won't be upset if you ignore this message, as I produce this content purely for the enjoyment of it. Here is the link: http://fnd.us/c1en5f?ref=sh_98yL48

What would happen if we combined Liga MX and MLS, and then split it into three divisions with promotion and relegation? How could it work? Inspired by a bit of chatter I have heard, and then considering the United 2026 World Cup, plus attempts at joint ventures like the Leagues Cup to inspire more MLS and MX interaction.

SUM knows it is still struggling to crack markets. The most watched league in the United States is Liga MX. Even Bournemouth v Sheffield United on a busy Saturday Premier League morning gets more viewers than two MLS Sunday evening prime time games combined. And then there was the week that even a Tuesday night Liga MX Femenil game, broadcast only in Spanish, brought in more viewers than any MLS game of that week.

SUM also knows that the biggest football loving demographic up here is the Latinos. Specifically, Mexicans. Teams like Club America and Chivas may not be giants in the sense of international recognition, like Barcelona and Manchester United, but they do very well in terms of popularity. The Chivas v America snoozefest friendly I went to in Chicago had more fans, and a far better atmosphere than even the best and most intense MLS games. At the end of the day, these teams generate income. Why do they do that? I think in part because Mexico is a football country with a rich, deep-rooted football culture, but also because it's actually good. I think one of the biggest problems facing MLS is that it is a poor standard. Some of the teams are just terrible, and some games lack any real quality at all.

How can MLS get good? We all speculate. One huge barrier is that teams cannot have any more than three good players due to the DP rule and the wage cap. It might not necessarily be ethical, but consider the success that has come from investment at clubs like Chelsea, PSG, and Man City. Then there's the promotion and relegation issue. The crap never gets flushed away. The league may grow in teams, but it does not grow in quality. And because half the teams make playoffs, with the winners being decided by the crapshoot of playoffs. If anyone can make it, and nobody has the threat of relegation looming over their heads, the games lose meaning.

Just this last week in MLS, now it has gone to single elimination in the playoffs, everyone has noticed how the games are now super exciting and entertaining. That's the point. You had to wait until October to get entertaining games. How about seeing that every week?

Enjoy the following PowerPoint Slides.

Here's how the three divisions would look. This is based off of Liga MX standings for the recent Clausura, and MLS Supporters Shield standings for 2019. Throw in the franchise expansion teams, and one of the bigger teams from Liga Acenso.





There would also be a cup across the three divisions, while the clubs still compete in their national cups too.
 Cup Simulation.
Club America versus LA Galaxy in a meaningful final would have SUM shooting their collective loads.

And then, as a Community Shield/Super Cup type deal. Cup winners taken from most recent real life editions.
How does this factor into Concacaf Champions League?

 How does the schedule work?

It all fits.

I'm not necessarily an advocate of this, just running a mere thought experiment. SUM still gets the summer opportunity to host those meaningless cash grab friendlies against big European teams. The league would not continue during huge international tournaments, which kind of admits your poor quality when you do that. Don't worry, we don't need a break for the World Cup, as they won't be selecting any of our players.

This also provides an opportunity for real rivalries to develop. Why do some teams in Europe hate each other, despite having no links or proximity? It's due to having played meaningful games at some point. And because games will be meaningful, real fan culture will develop. We will no longer need to hand out stupid hymn sheets at matches, run Simba cams at half-time, cheerleaders, freestylers, t-shirt cannons, dance cams, or dedicate every game to Autistic Military Pride appreciation night (I joke, but don't tell me you aren't 100% certain they haven't thought of combining these events to make way for new events). The fans would turn up excited, not because of free t-shirts, but because of three points.

And if the team doesn't do the business, they get relegated. You're crap. Leave. Come back when you're better.

What's at stake? Being the champion (in real countries, champion soccer teams are the most winningest teams, not the most playoffest teams), then there's avoiding relegation, CCL spots, prize money based on league position, and one which is somewhat neglected, NOT EMBARRASSING YOURSELF BY FINISHING LOW DOWN ON THE TABLE. Try it. It's kind of uplifting.

BUT 'MERICANS WILL NEVER GO FOR THIS

We still have cups. But essentially, if they have to be brought into football with gimmicks and flashing lights, it's not really the football they care about. There's enough people over here who love the game. Cater to giving them a good product. Make football good. Then people will join the hype. Seriously though, go back and look at the cup simulation. There are some very interesting story lines present there. Relegation threatened Veracruz travelling to Red Bulls and smashing them 5-1. Plucky Division 3 St. Louis enjoying a highly entertaining win at home to Division 2 Dynamo. We even had a Canadian derby in the second round.

Then look at the leagues. We want the top teams to play each other more frequently. Currently, MLS makes you play awful teams like Chicago, Cincinnati, and Orlando, sometimes three times a year. In a real league pyramid, you would only play them if they are worth playing. See how Division 3 has Kansas, Pumas, Chivas, Vancouver, who will all think they should be top division. Prove it.

In Division 1, there are many teams to have won an important trophy recently, that would think they are the best; Toronto, Seattle, Leon, America, LA, Atlanta, Cruz Azul, Galaxy, Tigres, Monterrey, Pachuca. PROVE IT!!! And if you can't handle these matches, there's a spot waiting for you in Divison 2, with plenty of teams ready and willing to come up and take your place.

This is a truly open system that puts the best against the best. And if you want to stay the best, you have to work really hard at it, over a sustained period of time. Who is the best? Playing four matches to determine a champion is not a scientifically valid method of doing so. The sample size is not large enough. Playing every team twice over ten months, collecting points for wins and draws, then projecting that onto a table, comes with more of the required statistical rigor to be able to determine a team as a "champion."

I do think each nation should have a strong and competitive team in its own right. MLS is stupid, Liga MX is corrupt and essentially broken (have a gander at the silly way they do relegation, thus protecting the big teams), while Canadians are waiting for the maple syrup to thaw for nine months of the year. They have just started a national league, called the Poutine Championship or something, but have Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, and Ottawa in MLS and USL, with another five clubs in lower USL.

But most importantly, keep Alexi Lalas away from my television.