Blinded By The Stats: Do you actually know what you're talking about? (Part Two)

The continuation.

http://unorthodoxcoaching.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/blinded-by-stats-do-you-actually-know.html

Keeper	Comp	H/A	Opposition	Result	Score	Target	Poss	CBs
Caballero	PL	Home	Sunderland	W	2-1	3	77	Stones, Kolarov
Caballero	CL	Away	Steaua	W	0-5	2	71	Stones, Otamendi
Caballero	PL	Away	Stoke	W	1-4	3	58	Stones, Otamendi
Hart	CL	Home	Steaua	W	1-0	3	62	Stones, Kolarov
Caballero	PL	Home	West Ham	W	3-1	2	67	Stones, Otamendi
Bravo	PL	Away	Man Utd	W	1-2	3	60	Stones, Otamendi
Bravo	CL	Home	‘Gladbach	W	4-0	1	56	Stones, Otamendi
Bravo	PL	Home	Bournemouth	W	4-0	2	64	Otamendi, Kolarov
Caballero	CC	Away	Swansea	W	1-2	4	60	Stones, Kompany
Bravo	PL	Away	Swansea	W	1-3	5	58	Stones, Otamendi
Bravo	CL	Away	Celtic	D	3-3	3	61	Kolarov, Otamendi
Bravo	PL	Away	Spurs	L	2-0	7	58	Stones, Otamendi
Bravo	PL	Home	Everton	D	1-1	2	73	Stones, Otamendi
Bravo (R)	CL	Away	Barcelona	L	0-4	7	47	Stones, Otamendi
Bravo	PL	Home	Southampton	D	1-1	2	65	Kompany, Stones
Caballero	CC	Away	Man Utd	L	1-0	2	52	Otamendi, Kompany
Bravo	PL	Away	West Brom	W	0-4	1	70	Otamendi, Stones
Caballero	CL	Home	Barcelona	W	3-1	2	35	Stones, Otamendi
Bravo	PL	Home	Middlesboro	D	1-1	3	71	Kolarov, Stones
Bravo	PL	Away	Palace	W	1-2	2	62	Kompany, Otamendi
Bravo	CL	Away	‘Gladback	D	1-1	5	69	Stones, Otamendi
Bravo	PL	Away	Burnley	W	1-2	5	67	Kolarov, Otamendi
Bravo	PL	Home	Chelsea	L	1-3	4	61	Stones, Otamendi
Caballero	CL	Home	Celtic	D	1-1	6	57	Clichy, Adarabioyo
Bravo	PL	Away	Leicester	L	4-2	6	78	Stones, Kolarov
Bravo	PL	Home	Watford	W	2-0	2	63	Kolarov, Otamendi
Barvo	PL	Home	Arsenal	W	2-1	1	61	Kolarov, Otamendi
Caballero	FA	Away	West Ham	W	0-5	2	67	Stones, Otamendi
Bravo	PL	Away	Everton	L	4-0	4	71	Stones, Otamendi
Bravo	PL	Home	Spurs	D	2-2	2	55	Kolarov, Otamendi
Bravo	PL	Away	Hull	W	0-3	3	67	Stones, Otamendi
Bravo	PL	Away	Liverpool	L	1-0	1	57	Stones, Otamendi
Bravo	PL	Home	Burnley	W	2-1	3	55	Kolarov, Otamendi
Caballero	FA	Away	Palace	W	0-3	3	63	Kolarov, Kompany
Caballero	PL	Away	West Ham	W	0-4	1	70	Stones, Otamendi
Caballero	PL	Home	Swansea	W	2-1	2	69	Stones, Kolarov
Caballero	PL	Away	Bournemouth	W	0-2	1	62	Stones, Kolarov
Bravo	FA	Away	Huddersfield	D	0-0	3	63	Stones, Otamendi
Caballero	CL	Home	Monaco	W	5-3	6	67	Stones, Otamendi
Bravo	FA	Home	Huddersfield	W	5-1	2	66	Stones, Otamendi
Caballero	PL	Away	Sunderland	W	0-2	3	71	Kolarov, Stones
Caballero	PL	Home	Stoke	D	0-0	2	65	Kolarov, Otamendi

  

Many would say that Man City are definitely missing the presence of Vincent Kompany. Probably, but hard to prove conclusively. We'll examine what we can prove.

	Goals	Shots	Possession	Points per game	Shots per game	Goals per game	Shots per goal
M City Av	45	129	65.23%	1.92	3.077	1.154	2.866
PL Av	31	75	65%	2.037	2.777	1.148	2.419
Otamendi	33	92	62.031%	2.063	2.875	1.031	2.788
Otamendi PL	21	55	66.421%	2.21	2.895	1.105	2.62
Bravo	34	83	71.727%	2	3.773	1.55	2.441
Bravo PL	25	58	71.125%	2	3.625	1.563	2.32
Caballero	11	44	63%	2.56	2.75	0.688	4
Caballero PL	4	17	67%	2.714	2.429	0.571	4.25

The stand out stats here are that Man City have a lot more possession when Bravo is playing, and that it takes more shots on target to beat Caballero than it does to beat Bravo. After seven appearances. Cabellero has won six Premier League games and drawn one, conceding just 0.571 goals on average per game. That's very good. Perhaps Man City didn't need to bring in Bravo, just to promote Caballero.

Comparing the two goalkeepers, why is it that they allow more Shots against Bravo than they do against Caballero? It's about one extra shot per game. And with the possession stats, the opposition is often looking at less than 30% of the ball when Bravo is in goal. With Bravo in goal, Man City are still managing two points per game, which is very good. With Caballero, it's much higher. With the extra possession earned by Bravo, and the one less shot per game, why are Man City picking up less points with Bravo in goal than with Caballero? We'd have to see where Man City are losing the ball, and what the opposition's route to goal is to be able to understand that.

Goals

Shots

Possession

Points per game

Shots per game

Goals per game

Shots per goal

Bravo + Otamendi	29	68	68.15%	2.05	3.4	1.45	2.345
Caballero without Otamendi	3	19	65.6%	2.6	3.8	0.6	6.3

Bravo + Otamendi gives us a sample size of 20 games, and Caballero without Otamendi gives us a sample size of 5 games. not conclusive, but it is starting to suggest something. I believe many would agree with Caballero in goal and a fit Kompany, or a new world class defender, and Man City are doing a lot better. Much like the WSL table earlier in the piece, we can compare Man City and Chelsea at the top of the table. Chelsea have conceded 20 goals from 27 games, which is far better than Man City. They've scored a few more, but conceded a lot less. Stop the leak at the back, and Man City will be fine. Do you think Guardiola is too stupid to realise that?

Well, many people accuse him of being stubborn. Wouldn't you be stubborn if you'd won what he's won? Many people are stubborn having achieved absolutely nothing in their life. Check out this article. Pep Guardiola: I got things wrong but I have adapted to life in England. Hardly the words of a stubborn man. People have been acting as if City have been dreadful this season. Actually, aren't they doing better than last season? They've progressed well in the FA Cup and Champions League, and are a place or two above their previous league position. There's still a way to go yet.

***It's time for an admission. After originally writing and publishing this piece, it turns out the final version had bits missing (it was too big to save, and is now in two separate articles). I've had to go over some of it again, but at least it's given me a chance to address some more stats. Since writing this, Man City played against Middlesbrough in the FA Cup. They won 2-0 with Bravo and Otamendi. I was trying to show that's perhaps not the best combo. That now makes City undefeated in their last eleven games. Otamendi and Bravo have only played together in three of those eleven games. There's not enough in there to suggest I'm right, but there is a little something. What else that comes out of this is that there's very little praise in the English media about such a run. Pep is stubborn and Man City aren't brilliant.

This creates a confirmation bias. We would (not me) like to see Guardiola fail because it confirms our idea of English supremacy. We have the best league in the world, and here comes a foreigner with these different ideas to ours, who thinks he's all that. It's sickening. People accuse him of only winning because he had the best players at Barcelona. He's admitted that many times. The media salivate after a City loss, prodding Guardiola to admit that the Premier League has defeated him, and that his success with Barcelona and Bayern was just smoke and mirrors. Please Pep, tell us our league is great.

Here is some of the rubbish spouted by journalists in opinion pieces:

Premier League not intense? Maybe Pep will change his mind.

Guardiola will never change as City drop points

Pep Guardiola is the biggest flop in battle of Premier League’s managerial superstars while Antonio Conte shines

Pep Guardiola rubbishes idea that the Premier League is more intense than La Liga or the Bundesliga

Fair and balanced response or sensationalist and provoking?

It’s clear that many want him to fail. I’ve touched before on why he’s brilliant, and why people shouldn’t underestimate him, but still do, even devoting an entire article to it. In regards to Pep’s supposed Stubborness, he’s been playing Caballero a lot more recently. Hardly the actions of someone that is stubborn. Pep has to find a balance between sticking with an idea because it’s a transitional period and it will take time, and also watching, waiting, anticipating… SAY IT AIN’T SO, CLAUDIO BRAVO, TURN THE LIGHTS OFF, CARRY ME HOME

NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

At what point does it become apparent it’s not working? At what point is it no longer part of the process? Do you want my opinion? The opinion of a journalist with no playing or coaching experience that may be instructed to write provoking articles to sell papers? Our thoughts on this matter are irrelevant. Sure, we can all be guilty of holding on too long to something we believe (often hope) is right. It’s why we give those we like more second chances than those we don’t. It’s why some are suggesting that Klopp is getting less grief than Deluded Brendan, despite having similar records. We like Klopp. Klopp says funny things. It’s almost moronic. Pep wants to win. He’s shown before he can change and adapt. Two Champions League titles, keeping Real Madrid in second place despite their huge budget, continuing Bayern’s run of successive Bundesligas following their monumental treble season. We have this idea that it would be easy to continue that good work because of the base that he had to build on. We also know it’s not true. When confronted with these two conflicting beliefs, it creates cognitive dissonance. We can either assimilate and re-evaluate, or let our biases shine through and betray our true selves.

Anyway.

We cannot do a comparison of Hart v Bravo that will definitively prove which one is better. They have both played for Man City in 2016, but for different managers in different systems, with different roles. We can look at some individual stats from the last year, but must keep in mind that these were not under the same conditions. It's like trying to determine who is faster by measuring one's speed across an 80m track, uphill, with the wind behind them, in the rain, versus one's speed across 100m, downhill, but with the wind against them, and not wearing running shoes. There's not enough constants between the two of them to make it entirely relevant.

I know that’s what many of you came here to read. There is, however, a very good article from the Manchester Evening News. It’s a Catalan journalist with experience of watching both Man City and Barca, stating that they are both good keepers with plenty of success, though he feels Bravo is better than Hart. Not conclusive proof either way. This was before the start of the season. There’s an even better article from Give Me Sport which analyses to two keepers from last season.  It looks at three parts of their game; keeping, distribution, and errors, and concludes that Bravo wins in all three areas. But this is comparing title winning Barca to fourth place Man City. The stats may be true, though how much relevance they hold is questionable.

This one has a bit more satire to it as it blames Bravo for Brexit, such is the reaction of some fans. This article makes a comparison between Hart and Bravo, but you’ll know by now that it holds little relevance, as they are playing for different teams in different leagues, under different managers in different systems. Too many different variables to be able to make a compelling comparison. 

Opta Stats released by the BBC does a comparison of Bravo looking at the goals that have been scored against him, versus the goals he should have saved. They call it expected goals. In that regard, only three Premier League keepers are performing worse. 

Rank	Keeper/club	Expected goals conceded	Actual goals conceded	Additional goals conceded
19/23	Fraser Forster (Southampton)	19.7	26	6.3
20/23	Claudio Bravo (Man City)	16.3	23	6.7
21/23	Lukasz Fabianski (Swansea)	42.2	49	6.8
22/23	Ron-Robert Zieler (Leicester)	7.7	16	8.3
23/23	David Marshall (Hull)	26.3	37	9.7

That same article uses Opta Stats to look at Hart’s expected goals versus those of Bravo.

Claudio Bravo	2016-17	Joe Hart
1620	Minutes played	1620
57	On target shots faced	81
16.3	Expected goals conceded	24.5
23	Actual goals conceded	23
6.7 conceded	Additional goals prevented/conceded	1.5 prevented

This is perhaps the most accurate measure so far. There is a formula used by the statisticians to work out what an expected goal is. Now we see a swing of eight goals more or less. Speaking hypothetically, if we could choose those eight goals, minus four from Everton’s 4-0 win, minus one from Spurs 2-2 draw, and minus three from Chelsea’s 3-1 win, and City have an extra six points. Title rivals Spurs have one less, and title rivals Chelsea have three less.

Position	Team	Played	GD	Points
1	Chelsea	27	34	63
2	Man City	27	32	62
3	Spurs	27	32	55

Such a hypothetical table now has Man City just one point off top. We could perhaps manipulate those eight goals into other games. Wasting four goals on Everton when we could have picked four games when they conceded once and either drew or lost, like Southampton (1-1), Everton (1-1), Liverpool (1-0) and Boro (1-1) that’s an extra seven points, which would put them on 63 points, and take the other four goals from Chelsea and Spurs, to keep those results, Man City would be joint on points at the top, with one embarrassing 4-0 defeat to Everton. It’s a shade better, but now we’re just getting silly with these hypotheticals. Still, we’re a little closer to the direct comparison we require in order to have a conclusive view one way or the other. So what’s the point in Claudio Bravo? We all know he was bought for his distribution, as this Mirror article shows:  They can both pass almost perfectly over short distances, with Bravo being at 99% and Hart being at 97%. Over long distances, Bravo makes 49% completion, to Hart’s 33%. Now we’re seeing a clear advantage. For percentage of long passes, Bravo goes long 51% of the time, and Hart goes long 75% of the time. To fully understand what this means requires just a tad more math. Judging by what types of pass they make, and how successful they are, I provide a pass completion rate of: Bravo 72.5 % Hart 35%  That’s quite substantial. Hart goes long more, and loses the ball more. But again, how valid of a comparison this is, is unknown as it was two different teams in two different leagues. The next step would be to look at goals scored when they are on the pitch, and compare it to possession levels. The variables to consider here make the time consuming effort just not worth it. We could look at how many goals are scored when each keeper is on the pitch, and even if the league, opposition, manager etc. were the same, it would still give us only a weak idea of how much each keeper contributes. We can say with some certainty that both Caballero and Hart are saving more than Bravo, but also that Bravo gives the ball away less. Which one you value more depends on how you want to play. We also know that Bravo is not a bad keeper, perhaps just having a bad season. Players do that. New team, country, language, league. How many of us have ever done something like that? Add in that you are replacing the national team’s goalkeeper, and a club hero. Those are big gloves to fill. The psychological factor is even harder to measure, so it just becomes speculation. Realistically, when comparing the goalkeepers as we’ve done in this article, how many people have had access to such numbers? The truth is, we all do. I’ve got these from easily accessible websites like Premier League, Sky Sports, Man City, ESPN, BBC. It’s not some hard to find corner of the internet run by stat nerds. So when most people are making a case, what are they actually basing it on? And when someone does bring a stat to a rhetoric fight, do they even know how to use it? The importance of stats, or the importance we place upon certain stats, can blind us. Like shots on target, pass completion, save percentage, unless you go deeper and get into the real nitty gritty, such figures tell us very little. This is definitely the case in politics over the last few years. When something happens, it’s amazing the amount of different views that suddenly pop up from people that read the same article, or viewed the same programme. It’s often a case of selective hearing (or reading) that we place more importance on what supports our views, and disregard that which conflicts our views. If you want to be successful, surround yourself with people of different opinions, who can provide other perspectives (so long as they’re not “alternative facts”). “I’ve never learned anything from a man who agreed with me” said the American politician Dudley Field Malone. We’re all guilty of surrounding ourselves with those that agree with us (echo chambers) and can then become annoyed about things that aren’t even a reality (THEY TOOK ER JERBS!!!) I don’t wish to become political, but since Nigel Farage is actually insignificant into what he brings to politics or British society in general, I feel I can provide such an example while remaining impartial. After the new president vaguely alluded to something which happened in Sweden, his number one toad faced fan had to try to provide some weight to the claim. Honest Nigel was quoted as saying “Pro rata, Sweden has taken more young male migrants than any other country in Europe and there has been a dramatic rise in sexual crime in Sweden, so much so that Malmö is now the rape capital of Europe and some argue even the rape capital of perhaps the world and it is the Swedish media who, frankly, just don’t report it.” It turns out that sexual assault has not increased in Sweden. It’s just that they’ve changed the way that they have reported it. A football analogy would be that the ball doesn’t just have to go into the net to be a goal, but for it to have entered the opposition’s six yard box. As such, a lot more goals would be scored. Facts and perspective don’t really matter too much when you’re trying to push an agenda and create some kind of political relevance for yourself. We all have a mate like Nigel, who just wants to be accepted as intelligent, witty, creative, and even thoughtful. These are the kind of people that will try to blind us with irrelevant stats. Below are news articles covering the story. http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nigel-farage-sweden-rape-comments-criticised-donald-trump-immigration_uk_58ac01b4e4b07028b7036683 https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3022743/sweden-malmo-immigration-nigel-farage-ylva-johansson-rape-statistics-u-turn/ http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-sweden-donald-trump-rape-capital-of-europe-refugees-malmo-why-wrong-debunked-claim-a7591636.html http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39056786 https://www.buzzfeed.com/tomchivers/this-swedish-criminologist-says-nigel-farage-is-talking-nons?utm_term=.hiwxV1DX2#.msOP6Ml5q http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4285628/Swedish-minister-makes-u-turn-sex-attack-statistics.html http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2017/feb/20/what-statistics-say-about-immigration-and-sweden/ – Your least biased source is always Politifact. They are not interested in sensationalism, fear mongering, party preference etc. They just want to distinguish between true and untrue. The level of detail they go into is a level of detail not many of us go to when discussing such issues. It's interesting to see which news outlets focus on which aspects, and why they might do so. Football fans are the same. We might dislike a team, manager, or player, due to silly things like their haircut, facial expressions, celebrations, or the way their bum sticks out when they run. These are all silly and arbitrary. We search and search for when they do something wrong, and when they inevitably do, we use it as justification for why we dislike them. Often, it’s the opinion that comes first, then we find the facts to suit our agenda. When being blinded, we do look for what suits us. We don’t want to be wrong, and this guides our process. There exists a website that searches out spurious correlations. Below are some examples. Do you really think that Nicholas Cage movies have any effect on people drowning in pools? With such a pretty graph, we could make a convincing case to many people. There’s far more on there, and they simply become ridiculous. Is this what politicians do? Is it what football fans do? When watching football, we often do it for social reasons. We enjoy the company of others, and the feeling of belonging when OUR group of overpaid millionaires we’ve never met performs better than THEIR group of overpaid millionaires we’ve never met. Some amazing feeling overwhelms us when our South American who can’t speak the language, had never heard of our town, and didn’t even know our team existed, scores past their African that had also never heard of their town, and only went to that club because he couldn’t get a move to his preferred destination. “I can’t explain it” is a response given by football fans when questioned about their tribal behaviours. Well, actually, we can explain it. We like success, we like belonging, and we like a purpose. We also actively seek out and trade with what’s known as social currency. Being right, or appearing to hold more information, is a form of social currency. "Dave got all five right on his accumulator. Dave’s a top bloke who knows his stuff." Imagine the look on Dave’s face after reading that. All the other blokes now look up to Dave, and wish to emulate Dave’s success. What about Darren? Well Darren read the Sunday papers and found a stat that he believes is going to prove him right about his opinions in regards to something or other. The others marvel at Darren recalling the figure, and think that he may be onto something. Suspense builds as the lads wait to see if his bet will come in. With football being such a random and nuanced game, the only black and white is the score. The rest of it is so grey. We can quite easily, and with utter vagueness, argue that the other team won, but our team played better. That’s an honest assessment there. Admitting defeat and claiming superiority. We love a bit of that. It’s like a humble brag, or an honest put down. We should have won because we had ten corners. Our top defender was injured. The referee missed a clear foul in the build-up to the goal. Whenever you add a “but”, it takes away from the first part of the sentence. “You may have won, but” suddenly throws into question the validity of the win. It means the win wasn’t a true win. Not by the speaker’s undefined and obscure parameters, nonetheless. And since humans are loss averse, we use stats to hide our own deficiencies. It’s a mask. We try to blind the listener to the reality. It’s about not looking stupid. Not truly accepting defeat. A long running biased opinion was that Man Utd always got penalties at Old Trafford. They did. This was a fact. We tried to use this as a way to say that referees or the FA were biased. There are also correlations that show Man Utd had more 50/50 decisions given to them at home (like a lot of home teams). We couldn’t truly accept United’s dominance, and so had to discredit them. We couldn’t accept we had been beaten, so had to claw back some credibility. There are examples, like Louis Saha’s volleyball assist to Paul Scholes in the added time of added time at Ewood Park. Those things do happen. But why did Man Utd get more penalties? They went into the opposition’s box more times. That alone is enough. Also, their fast and tricky attackers were exposed to clumsy defenders that had been given instructions to get stuck in. What would normally happen in such a situation? When coaching or managing, we often have to make snap judgements. Inexperience or lack of knowledge can show very quickly. The only way to remedy that is to keep gaining experience and knowledge. You’re not born to succeed. You’re born to suffer for eighty years and then die. Anyone who is successful at what they do has built a skill set that enables them to manipulate situations to their advantage. We, as coaches, need to know what instructions to give, how to give them, what the pros and cons are, and weigh up the risk and reward. The only time we can stop and think is at half-time. If your keeper gets sent-off in the first twenty minutes, now what? THINK THINK THINK!!! Knowledge is remembering in disguise, telling us that expert decision making comes from experience. You start off by beginning to assess which variables are important, and start to switch your focus mainly to them. Our brains adapt to the stimuli, and we become adept at sieving through what’s necessary. We can begin to make snap judgements using only the necessary information. Malcolm Gladwell’s Blink is an excellent book that talks a lot about being blinded by information, or not knowing which the relevant variables are. What do you actually need to know, and how much of that is important enough for you to be able to do your job? Information overload is blinding. I’ll provide one example to toot my own horn. Any ex-players reading this will be able to provide countless examples of when I got it wrong. Last season, with Southampton Saints Ladies Reserves, in the Women’s Premier League, we were playing against bottom of the league, Chichester City. They were having a woeful season. Even worse than us. The game started and we flew into a 2-0 lead. It looked inevitable that we would build on this and score plenty more. As the half wore on, our right back and right wing were flagging. One was ill, and one was injured. We had two subs, that were U16s that had just played an exhausting cup match that morning. What were we to do? To my assistant and I, it was obvious. The two players could not continue, and had to be replaced. The team fought the decision. They were not happy. It would mean no subs for the rest of the game, playing with two fatigued players, and with one of them being vastly out of position. It was somewhat of a gamble. To me, it really was quite straight forward. I couldn’t get why they were so opposed to the decision. The captain tried to get us to compromise. Play them for another ten or fifteen minutes and see how it goes, then make the changes. The compromise wasn’t good enough. It would only work if we did it now. What was difficult for them was obvious for us. We had information that they did not. While they were out on the field playing, they had not noticed the behaviour of our two U16 subs. They were bouncing off the walls. Hyperactive following their important victory and fifteen bottles of Lucozade. While the rest of the team was worried if they had the energy to play again, we were concerned with getting them to shut up and sit still. It was also obvious that Chichester had no real attacking threat, and had only scored because we were essentially playing with nine players. It wouldn’t matter if one of them was out of position. What mattered is having eleven able bodies on the pitch. Another factor, obvious yet neglected, was that this was a team that was used to winning. They weren’t mentally strong enough to mount a comeback unless we handed it to them by handicapping ourselves by playing the way we were. If we were to score another goal to go 3-1 up, there was no way they were going to turn that around. They were frail. And we were quality at defending with our backs to the wall. It was also an advantage that our two U16s were brilliant players, who both very soon moved into the first team. Using that, one could make a case that they were two of the best players on the pitch. It hardly sounds like we’re weakening the team now with such a double substitution. With the energy and skill, all we needed was a good first fifteen or twenty minutes. Then we could die. At that point, we’d have re-established our two goal lead, and Chichester wouldn’t have long enough to feasibly win the game. The U16s were hyper and good players. Why not chuck them on? Now you’re desperate to know what happened. Of course, we restarted the second half well, scoring after twenty minutes. The two subs combined for the goal. A one-two down the right, and a shot from distance that went over the keeper and into the net. A brilliant goal. And smugness ensued. I probably wasn’t as smug as I should have been, because I was hiding it from the world. But I was smug. That killed Chichester. They saw no way back. We went on to win 5-1. The players were distracted with the game, and they placed too much importance on the subs. Substitutes are there to replace others when things aren’t working, usually injury or fatigue. So we used them for their primary purpose. It’s just because it was both of them, and earlier than tradition, that it started to make the players panic. They were blinded by stats. They were absolutely right in their assumptions, which clouded their judgement, and they were missing one vital piece of information. THE GIRLS WERE HYPER. Good, young, fit players, with bags of glucose, and high arousal levels. How could anyone have thought it would have ended badly given the opposition and what was required of the game? My assistant and I saw no way that it was going to go wrong. We needed that twenty-minute boost, and that was enough. We considered only the information that was relevant, and we saw one clear path. I still remind them of it when I see them. I’m now across the coast at the rival club, so obviously don’t see them as much. Still, it’s a great way to demonstrate instinctive decision making, and how people in the same situation can have such polarised views, and even that one bit of hidden information can be the difference maker. So to finally recap all that’s been discussed in this piece. Trust me, lads. Both subs at half-time, It's going to work. Messi is better than Ronaldo. They have similar records, similar trophy hauls, and have played in the same league at the same time for clubs of similar stature with players of similar ability. That means we get to look at just one important stat; Messi scores more important goals in more important games. Ronaldo beats dead horses, Messi changes games. The best league in Europe is La Liga. The Spanish teams win more against teams from England and Germany. Spanish teams get further in European competition. The latter stages of the Champions League and Europa League have repeatedly been filled with Spanish teams. Several finals and semi-finals have been competed between two Spanish clubs. The Premier League is not the best. Certain cases can be made using certain metrics, but it’s like having a better goal difference, despite having less points. Where it really matters, the Premier League is behind Spain, and similar to Germany. It was not easy for Guardiola to win the titles with the teams he’s had. It looks easy considering his points haul, but that’s more down to their greatness rather than the inefficiencies of opponents. His dominance in Spain and Germany was incredible. To finish above Real Madrid with their spending and talent, and to win three successive titles with Bayern in such a comprehensive way, is truly amazing. It’s not because the other teams aren’t very good, that’s not true. Pep’s teams were just better. Does the Premier League need a winter break? Yes it does. It would help our clubs in European competition, and also in international tournaments. Premier League clubs do have a better head to head against Bundesliga clubs in Europe, but such games are predominantly group stage matches, i.e. before winter. English clubs play four extra league games, are in two cup competitions, and will play far more games than German teams, with no break in between. Currently, German teams are more successful over the last five years than the English, yet we know the English win in head-to-head. The English are great at the start and fade out at the end. Perhaps with a winter break and less games, the Premier League sides won’t have European success inhibited by fatigue. The Premier League is slightly more competitive in the sense that there are more teams capable of winning it, and that title races are often closer, but that does not by any means the quality of players or teams is superior. As stated before, La Liga is the best, and the Premier League is there or thereabouts with the Bundesliga. Claudio Bravo is not a bad keeper. He’s just having a below average season in a new environment. Joe Hart is not a better keeper than Claudio Bravo. They’re both excellent shotstoppers, both prone to mistakes, but Bravo is the better all-round package. Joe Hart playing for Man City this season would not mean they would win the league. Having him in goal would change their style of play dramatically, and so conclusive proof one way or the other is impossible. It’s all hypothetical and alternate realities. Willy Caballero may currently be the better choice for Man City going forward as they tend to do better with him in goal than Claudio Bravo. Form is temporary, class is permanent. Caballero is doing well and Bravo is not. This may change. Guardiola is not stubborn, or at least none more so than any other coach to have won countless trophies and revolutionised the way we view football. He does change and he does adapt. Now that you’re aware of all this, and WHY, please do tell a friend. And be more responsible in future when sharing stats. And don’t just pick stats based on which ones agree with you. And question the validity of those stats. Watch football more objectively. Recycle. Help your fellow man. And don’t perpetuate the nonsense that clogs the game.

3-5-2 / 5-3-2 Positional Playbook for U13s

Below you will find the pages from a playbook I made for my U13 boys. Before I begin, credit needs to be given to the following:

Integrity Soccer gave me the idea to do this from looking at their brilliant resources. They have quite a few things on their page. I wanted to do something more specific to my team. They cover a range of formations and positions. I took many ideas from them.

Coaching the 5-3-2 with a Sweeper is a book I've had in my arsenal for years. My playbook doesn't include a sweeper. Naturally one starts to occur, but it is something I have left out, and that is for two reasons; it's their first season of 11v11, and I think it might be too advanced for their understanding with everything else I am asking them to do. It's also a specialist position, and I'm still rotating them a bit. I choose three CBs, they position themselves as left, right, and centre, and as situations arise during the game, one of them will start to sweep.

Aldershot Town Youth Department as they have a vast and extensive curriculum. That's entirely their own intellectual property, just as this playbook is mine. I won't be sharing anything that is theirs. Essentially they want us to expose our kids to a whole range of formations. They have some ideas that must remain constant, such as short, fast, play, high pressure, counter-attack. Their belief is that throughout their careers, the players will work for many different coaches, who will utilise many different systems and strategies, so we best expose them at a young age to these different styles.

We started the season 4-2-3-1, which was a bit too ambitious for what we have. We began to make use of an extra body in defence, two banks of three in central areas, and two strikers providing width and depth, and better helping us shape our pressure system. We also have two flying wingers. Another reason for the formation change was that we have few proper defenders. Most players consider themselves more attacking, and are thus reluctant to go in defence. Now, occasionally in games, I'll use a midfielder that has holding qualities in the sweeper position, as it's not too dissimilar from a deep lying playmaker. The right and left wing backs can be easily convinced to take up more defensive responsibilities, simply by the way you frame their role. They are wingers, not defenders. Then you can tell them to defend as much as you want, and they'll do it, because they're a very good winger that will be helping out the defence. Defender often implies you're stuck in your own half.

The purpose of the playbook was to get the boys (and educate the parents, more on that later) to understand a new system, and one that is not common in English youth sides. It makes the most out of what we've got. We're a team just above bottom, shipping goals left, right, and centre. Results have definitely improved over the season. What's really annoying about the league we're in is that games are infrequent. These boys have a future in the game. We can't play sixteen games in nine months. Without a game each weekend, we can often forget what we were working on in the previous game as it was so long ago.

With such a playbook it gives a very clear idea, but not too in depth the players suffer from information overload, of what is expected as a team and as individuals. After being with the players for several months, we had a set of phrases that were understood and accepted, and thus the language of the text is appropriate to their intellectual level. The pictures of them and the colours of the club help to personalise it and make it more relatable to them. The pictures of top players help them to visualise the positions a bit better. The two together helps the players imagine themselves as top players.

This season I've had more or less twenty players in the squad. We started by taking eighteen to games. Too much rotation proved problematic. Now we take fifteen. That means less changing and also more fierce competition for places. Working by myself, I can't coach every single player. If the game is eighty minutes, that works out as between four and six minutes of attention each. We would do goal setting and targets, and the players would be encouraged to pick or to invent their own. With a playbook providing clear guidelines on how to play, it helps the players think in more relevant terms, and will know by which parameters they should evaluate their own performance. The playbook helps me get all this across, without having to give everyone plenty of attention, meaning they still get the information required, and will now be able to self-evaluate far more effectively.

The parent factor is a big one. A lot of dads will talk endless football to their kids. We can't stop them having conversations before the game, in the car, or back at home. What we can do is prime them so that those conversations will be more helpful and relevant. The dad may talk rubbish at the kid for an hour before the match, during breakfast and on the way there, but at least it's now in line with what I'm asking them to do. This is not applicable to all parents by any means, but plenty of dads fancy themselves as players. Some of them have justification to. They'll still want to be the big man in front of their child. They can admit that the coach may be knowledgeable or good. What they can't admit (and we all struggle with this) is that they are inferior. No kid should know more about their dad about football at the age of twelve or thirteen. By giving them this playbook, it gives them plenty to digest, and to help get the point across the the player. The parents will also be given some insight into what you're trying to do and why. People like a bit of information. They don't need to know everything, just enough to feel useful. And realistically, some of the boys may need a bit of extra help with trying to understand what is asked of them. With a knowledgeable and understanding parent, they can really help get that point across. Much like helping them with their homework.

On top of all this, people really appreciate it when you put in a bit of effort like this. When there's a loss or a mediocre training possession, or it's just one of them days, having done plenty of extra work off the field really helps to buy you some credibility as a coach and as a person. "Tonight's session wasn't great, but he's usually pretty good, and has done lots of extra stuff behind the scenes to really help the boys. You can tell he cares and that he knows what he's talking about." Absolutely do not do this just to buy credibility. Credibility is just a positive byproduct of doing your best job, and going above and beyond to help the team. That's your motivation; to improve the team. And your incentive? Not credibility. Your incentive is that you actually see it work and the team improves. That's better than any reward. If you disagree, you're perhaps not coaching for the right reasons.

This playbook was an immediate hit. I sent it out about two hours before training. In that time, parents are finishing work and kids are coming home from school. I was amazed that many of them had actually read it, some in the car on the way to training, and that one dad had even printed it off so the boy had his own copy at home. And that's my last point. Doing this won't make the players better if they don't have the motivation to become better. It's like a gym routine. You could have a personal trainer, the best equipment, and a great routine, but if you don't work hard, don't use correct technique, and don't diet right, it doesn't matter. Just because your coach has come up with the most amazing plan, that doesn't mean a thing, if you aren't willing to read it, understand it, and apply it to your game. My players had that motivation, and thus it was effective.

So buckle up and enjoy.

Liked it? Make your own using PowerPoint and Word.

Ten Commandments: U13 Youth Soccer Playing Style

A few games into the season, and my group of U13s, a group of technically advanced and intelligent players, were making the same basic errors. Movement was terrible, they were diving into tackles, giving the ball away at set-pieces, and panicking on the ball. That clearly had to stop. It was their first season of 11v11, their first season with me, and for many of them, the first time they had ever been in an academy environment. Was the calling too big for them? For some, maybe.

It really annoys me when kids playing games will kick the ball out of play. Don't give me that "there's a time and a place for it" rubbish. When they're playing competitively as adults, the philosophy of the manager is gospel. If the manager says don't try to turn or pass, just hoof it into row Z when you're in trouble, that's exactly what you do. If that's all you ever tell your kids to do, that's all they will learn. Winning is important in the sense that we need to be competitive, and have the will to win. What is more important is that your players have the skills required for success when they are older. Yes, I want to win. What I really want to win is the game when they are twenty-four and playing in a top league, deciding titles. If a player wins a cup final by using something I taught them, that is worth more than ten million wins at U13 level. So let's get it right now, and give them the tools for success in their later years.

If this doesn't explain well enough what we needed to work on, here's an accompanying video, including football I took at the Champions League group stage game between Man City and Barcelona, which City won 3-1 in a thoroughly entertaining game,

We started to see improvements in these areas straight away. I think the nerves and the jump in level gave some of them a fright, and they struggled to adapt. This provided a clear picture to them of what is expected. As a club, we gave them tons of information at the start of the season. I believe a lot of them read a lot of it. Perhaps it was too advanced. Perhaps they couldn't relate it to their own game. What I created here isn't reinventing the wheel, nor is it rocket science. A lot of it is basic common sense and should be ingrained in them already. It's more of a reminder, and a way to get them to adhere to minimum standards. A singer that forgets their lines is not a bad singer. It's not the singing we're judging them for, it's just that they've forgotten how to do that.

Many clubs or organisations have a philosophy or code of conduct. They are fantastic guidelines for coaches, players, and parents. There's nothing wrong with becoming more specific with your own group. If they don't get it, or are repeat offenders in certain areas, emphasise those areas. It's another way of reminding them, and it looks cool too. I'm clearly no genius with computers, as it's all a bit rough round the edges, but I can do enough to get my point across. Plus it's fun.

How I Want My 4-2-3-1

This is a document I created back in 2014 when I was working with two young girls sides in Mexico. The ages were kind of a mix, but let's say they were U16s and U14s. Some new to football, some old to football but useless, some new with potential, and some old that were brilliant. So a real mixture of ability, intelligence, motivation, and experience. At times, we'd have to lean on our best players. Other teams were similar though, with the gap between their best and their worst players being quite a wide one. When you have to play everyone, put your strongest players in the positions that will hurt the opposition the most, and put your weaker players in positions that will mask their deficiencies.

For the five years prior to the creation of this piece, 4-2-3-1 had been all the rage among top sides. It's easy to implement as most players should understand it no problem. Depending on the way you play, you can adapt it to suit you. It's a bit of a cross between a 4-4-2 and a 4-3-3. Solid defensively, great for launching counter-attacks, and with a little bit of work, great for a possession team. The natural progression in football these days sees most of the top teams make the same kind of shapes when attacking and when defending. Formations, as the top coaches say, are irrelevant, and simply so that those watching on TV can understand where everyone is playing. And that's the thing about the 4-2-3-1, in that it easily changes into other systems depending upon where the ball is. With the two wing backs pushing up and the CDM holding, it can become a 3-4-3. In a counter, it turns into a 4-4-2. When defending, it can be a 4-5-1 or, 4-1-4-1, or 4-4-1-1. Most of the time it looks like a variant of a 4-3-3. Which is kind of the point these top managers are making. A 4-2-3-1 becomes whatever you want it to be, whenever you need it to be, based upon what players you have, the phase of the game, and how best to be effective against the opposition,

I've definitely refined it a lot over the years. That's only natural with the change of teams, change of player demands, compartmentalisation of new knowledge, and experiences of successes and failures. For example, I have more of false 9 rotation with the two wide players tucking in. Sometimes the 9 and 10 rotate, horizontally or vertically, which is something that may depend on the opposition. And with some players and some teams, it's more one holding than two holding. Two holding works like a pulley system, where one hunts and one holds. It gives them a rest, and it can be situational. In a lot of cases though, both tend to go forward, leaving the space in front of the two CBs to be unguarded, meaning that the RB and LB don't want to push up as we don't have enough defensive security. And suddenly we're playing with a flat back four and no holding midfielder, as opposed to a pivoté with two flying wing backs. I suppose that if you have a Busquets or playing of that ilk, you just designate him to do the job, rather than having it shared or rotated. One player to sit and shield. Then there's no "sorry mate, I thought you were going to cover me." It becomes clear whose responsibility that role is. So it becomes a 4-1-4-1, or a 4-3-3 with the point of the midfield triangle facing the defence.

A lot of the basis for my original ideas came from watching the Bundesliga, and also the German national team at the 2010 World Cup. Their counter was frightening. It clearly worked well on Australia, England, and Argentina, as they scored four past those teams. My ideas were also honed by  this book by Massimo Lucchesi, who is a great tactical writer, author of many books.

I worked on it with these idiots.

And these idiots.

  

Goalkeeper GK:

Become available to receive passes to feet from the defenders.
Distribute the ball quickly and safely to players in good spaces.
No long kicks to the opposition. Look for players in the wide areas, those in space, spaces where we can penetrate, or areas on the field where we have a numerical advantage.
Be quick to come out of the goal and collect any through passes before the attacker meets the ball.
Come out of the penalty area, pushing up the field, as the team attacks and goes deeper into opposition territory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdtOq_XlZAU

Right/Left Defence RB/LB:

Join in with the attack, moving forward as the team does.

Look for overlaps and other combinations with the midfielder in front of you.

Put crosses into the box when the opportunity calls for it.

Form a bowl shape with the rest of the defence when balanced and in possession.

Support teammates and goalkeeper, finding space wide to receive the ball.

Listen to instructions from the GK and CBs in regards to pushing up or dropping as a unit, waiting for the call to spring the offside trap.

Carry the ball forward when there is space to run into.

Press as a unit, communicating with teammates.

Recovery runs behind the defence when out of balance.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdtOq_XlZAU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqDfqIDid8I

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D72gPqw3ILA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5rltwMD6Ho   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENixoW3m1Ns

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqJ9u2-hPN4  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwMlKgv_2kA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zM2D6po1rpE  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRrNX4s2r7Y

Centre Back CB:

Be strong and commanding.

Win aerial challenges, intercept passes, steal the ball from the opposition.

Communicate and instruct teammates, especially the defensive line to move up and drop when appropriate.

Always be available to receive the ball from players in order to recycle possession when the team can’t play forward.

Split, using width and depth between the pair of CBs to create lots of space, allowing the wide defenders to push up and join in with the attack.

One defender is allowed to go forward and join in with the attack for attacking set-pieces, as long as we always have three defenders at the back.

Enforce that the back line remains together, and that no one drops behind, playing the opponents onside.

When a player receives the ball with their back to goal, press them immediately and do not allow them to turn or to play forward.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdtOq_XlZAU   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zM2D6po1rpE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqDfqIDid8I   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqJ9u2-hPN4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D72gPqw3ILA  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5rltwMD6Ho

Defensive Midfielder CDM:

Act as the shield in front of the defence.

Do not go searching for the ball in wide areas. Remain central, compact, and the line in front of the back four.

When attacking, one CDM is allowed to move forward and join in with the attack.

After one CDM goes forward to attack, the partner needs to drop and stay just in front of the CBs. This allows the wide defenders to push forward by providing sufficient cover, with the magic number of three.

Be an anchor for the team, allowing for them to pass the ball through you to switch the play.

Look to release the ball to other players in space, sometimes playing penetrating passes to the back of the opposition defence.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uczW42zDIk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEWMATgTElU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKpguR405PI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqJ9u2-hPN4

Right/Left Attacking Midfielder RAM/LAM:

Make runs behind the defence to receive the ball.

Run with the ball at defenders.

Execute different types of crosses into the box for the forwards to attack.

When in possession, move out far to the touchline in order to receive the ball, and also creating space for teammates to exploit.

Try to get into shooting positions when central with the ball.

When with the ball and outnumbered in the corner, hold and protect the ball until help arrives.

Look for combinations with the wide defender on your side.

Switch play with a long pass when there are gaps in the defence on the far side.

Come back and help the defence, making recovery runs, and double teaming with defenders.

Press the defence. Immediately press them when there is confusion, panic, a bad pass, bad control, or they are facing their own goal.

When the keeper has the ball at their feet, block off passing lanes to the wide players, while the CAM and CF press the keeper or players with the ball.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dN36fobGAB8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPWdjojx6TY

http://youtu.be/RrclepvJtjY?list=PL8917422FE6904AA0

 

Centre Attacking Midfielder CAM:

Run with the ball at defenders.

Elicit link up play between all attacking players.

Come deep to receive the ball.

When out of possession, get behind the ball with the rest of the team to help defend.

Press the opposition defence with the CF, RAM and LAM, attempting to regain possession as near to their goal as possible.

Press together, and insist that teammates come with you.

Get into good shooting positions.

Dictate the play from a central position, passing the ball to the left and the right, attempting to exploit overloads.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljZJVvZZKCw

http://youtu.be/5VSKSXisVLU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrclepvJtjY&list=PL8917422FE6904AA0

Centre Forward CF:

Avoid coming deep to receive the ball.

Look to find space along the opponent’s defensive line.

Push at the last defender with off the ball runs.

Play on the last man.

Look to receive the ball behind and in between the defenders.

Use link up play with the midfield, aiming to drag defenders out of position and get more teammates forward.

Spin off defenders after dragging them out of position in order to receive the ball behind them.

Bend runs to stay onside.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljZJVvZZKCw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrclepvJtjY&list=PL8917422FE6904AA0

Happy times in sunny Mexico.

Vamos Reforma!

They were only happy because, on my last day, the parents cancelled training and brought cake instead.

Much like I mentioned in the 5-3-2 piece, come up with a clear mantra of how you want your team to play. Especially if, as a player, you were only familiar with one or two positions. The positions you know more about, you can almost instruct instinctively. When players are looking for guidance, they won't appreciate a coach having to figure it out first. We all have off days, so prepare. If you can't remember, you'll have your guide. And the players can look at it too. You can't manage and analyse all your players at the same time. Some are bright enough to read it, see the pictures, watch the videos, and understand first time what you want them to do. Let them get on with it. Others, not so much. It also helps for when another coach has to cover your game, or if you have someone to work with. Make sure you're all signing off the same hymn sheet.

Hope you enjoyed it, and keep giving your players your best. It's you who works for them.