The Challenge of the Challenge: Why Pep Has Nothing To Prove

With the announcement of Guardiola's decision to leave Bayern Munich at the end of the season and move to Manchester City in the summer, many journalists and pundits have felt the need to give us their opinion on the matter. A common recurring sentiment is that if Pep wanted to prove he is the best, he should be moving to a team much lower down the table, rather than the already fantastic, unlimited resources of Man City. Deep down, many people believe that they could win trophies if they went to Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich etc. Huge finances available, and a large squad of top quality players, so it's easy, right? All one would need to do is sit atop the throne of the club and make decisions, much akin to the armchair of hindsight that most of us have in front of our TVs, as we pass comment on what a player or a team should have done. I mean seriously, what could really go wrong at one of Europe's top clubs? It should be a walk in the park, and any of us could do it, no problem.

That is quite an ass kicking to suffer in your own home.

This is the common misconception that managers like Guardiola, Mourinho, Klopp, Pellegrini, Wenger et al. have easy jobs. Really? Lately, Guardiola is complaining about how the German press, one paper in particular, has not asked him a question about football for three years. These men have every detail of their lives scrutinised by journalists that have an apparent sense of smuggery and self-righteousness. Just look at the stress Van Gaal has been under at Manchester United. Things aren't going so great, admittedly, and yet it seems as if the whole world is about to go into meltdown. Van Gaal has stated that it is completely unfair on his family to have to read in the paper every day about how he is going to be sacked or replaced. No one else, except for maybe the leader of a country, is put under so much unnecessary stress each and every day of their life. And the one time Van Gaal retaliated, he called a journalist fat, to which the reporter became huffy and wrote a very catty article about how Van Gaal should be able to accept criticism. The British public responded with the sentiment that journalists "can dish it out, but can't take it".

So let's examine why Pep has nothing to prove, not to himself or his family, and especially not to you or I. Pep is not in competition with any of us plebeians. His Man City team are not likely to be drawn in the cup next season against my U9s, nor am I likely to encounter a Man City V one week with my five-a-side team. This is a man that is responsible for creating the best club side that the world has even seen. His Barcelona not only dominated, but revolutionised and brought football forward into a new era. That's not enough for some people, as anyone with a team that contains Messi, and has access to the finest products of La Masia, should be able to win the Champions League multiple times. My vision of these detractors are people that play too much Football Manager, and believe that running a club is simply down to choosing a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1, and buying a couple big names for £40million, as well as maybe one or two decent youth products.

Van Gaal showing his characteristic happy face.

Sam Allardyce once said that he should be given a shot at Real Madrid, but as he is not fashionable, he will never be given the chance. I would love to see that happen, as it would be so thoroughly compelling. We could learn so much about the game and about management if ever that were to happen. Look at how many managers over the years have done well, and then faded into obscurity. You just have to go back through the last fifteen years of the Premier League to see managers that bring a team up from obscurity, usually the league below, or even lower down the table, get them into the top half, top six, maybe even top four, and go on a good cup run. There are many that have done this; Paul Lambert, Martin O'Neil, Harry Redknapp, David Moyes, Mick McCarthy, Mark Hughes, Nigel Adkins, Tony Mowbray, Brian McDermott, Paul Jewell. The list goes on and on. I am not denying that what they have achieved isn't remarkable. The smaller the budget, the more impressive. The crapper the town, the more amazing the achievement. What I'm saying is, they probably couldn't dominate the same way that Pep has, if they were given the same opportunities.

You've got to be something truly special to be successful at one of the top four clubs in the top five leagues in Europe. The quality of leagues will fluctuate each season, and the top four is hardly fixed, but to achieve long term, sustained success there, you have to be the best of the best. And this is the foundation of my argument, of which I seek to convince you, that it is far easier to get a team from the bottom half of the table into the top half of the table, than it is to get a team from third or second place into first. Surely it's more difficult to move up ten places than it is to move up two, right?

I'm going to first examine that with some crude numbers. Simplified for effect, here are the teams that have finished in the top four positions in the top five leagues in Europe over the last ten years, including league wins (red) and Champions League wins (blue).

Premier League:
Arsenal 10
Chelsea 9 3 1
Man Utd 9 5 1
Man City 5 2
Liverpool 5
Spurs 2

La Liga:
Barcelona 10 6 4
Real Madrid 10 3 1
Valencia 6
Atletico Madrid 5 1
Sevilla 3
Villareal 2
Athletic Bilbao 1
Real Sociedad 1
Malaga 1
Osasuna 1

Bundesliga:
Bayern Munich 10 6 1
Schalke 7
Bayer Leverkusen 5
Borussia Dortmund 4 2
Werder Bremen 4
Wolfsburg 2 1
Borussia Monchengladbach 2
Stuttgart 2 1
Hamburg 2
Hannover 1
Hertha Berlin 1

Serie A:
AC Milan 7 1 1
Juventus 6 4
Inter Milan 6 5 1
Roma 6
Fiorentina 5
Lazio 3
Napoli 3
Udinese 2
Sampdoria 1
Chievo 1

Ligue 1:
Lyon 9 3
Marseille 7 1
PSG 5 3
Lille 5 1
Bordeaux 3 1
Monaco 2
Toulouse 2
St. Etienne 1
Nice 1
Montpellier 1 1
Auxerre 1
Nancy 1
Rennes 1
Lens 1

Please note that top four finishes do not always equate to Champions League qualification. The first number indicates the amount of top four finishes. If there is a second number in red, it indicates the amount of league titles won in that period. If there is a third number in blue, it indicates how many times the Champions League was won.

An average of ten different teams across the last ten years have finished in top four places in the top five leagues. In England it was only six, whereas in France there have been thirteen. An even smaller share of the top four teams have actually won the title, averaging at just under four different teams to be crowned champions in the past ten seasons. From the ten seasons listed, the Champions League was won by seven different teams. Five times it was won by a Spanish club, and four of those were by Barcelona. Two of the Barcelona victories were with Guardiola in charge. The trophy hasn't been with a French club since Marseille won it in 1993. In twenty five years, the Champions League or European Cup has only been won by a team outside the top five leagues just three times; Porto in 2004, Ajax in 1995, and Red Star Belgrade in 1991. Before the 1990s, there was more of a level playing field, but only just. It's also worth mentioning that Guardiola won the cup with Barcelona in 1992 as a player.

So we can see that getting into that top four is a fairly difficult task. It's evidently far easier in France than it is in England. In England it seems like a pretty much closed shop. Some seasons there are pretenders that go all the way, only to fall at the final hurdles. Leicester, so far in 2015/16 are doing exceptionally well, and we'd rather see them win the league than Arsenal or Man City, but history tells us that they probably won't do it. What a team like Leicester, or any of the other pretenders over the last ten years, such as Everton, Aston Villa, West Ham, Newcastle, Bolton, and even Blackburn need, is for the regular contenders to have an awful season. Chelsea are doing just that. Manchester United and Liverpool are struggling. This leaves just Arsenal, Manchester City, and Spurs, who are all doing okay, but not exceptionally. Leicester are doing incredibly, and good luck to them, but can they keep it up? If they do win the league, can they compete again next year? How many times do they have to challenge for the title before they are considered to not be punching above their weight?

The standard that we judge dominance by in football is five out of eight. If a team can win five league titles in eight seasons, then they have dominated. In that time, another team cannot win the title back to back. Bayern achieved six titles out of ten, which is a great ratio, but considering Dortmund won two back to back titles in that time, 2011 and 2012, it's not true domination. They did, however, defeat Dortmund in the 2013 Champions League final, and have won the Bundesliga three times running since then. There could be a new period of Bayern domination on the horizon, and Guardiola would have been a huge part of that. Inter Milan won five Serie A titles without interruption, starting in 2005 and culminating in 2010 with a Champions League final victory over Bayern Munich. Many will feel that those titles were tarnished, as Inter's main competitors suffered hugely after the match fixing scandal. Inter were deserved winners, and that can't be disputed, but they were fighting against wounded opponents. Barcelona achieved a good five out of eight, ranging from 2008/09 to 2014/15, where they were interrupted by both Madrid sides. In that time, they won three Champions League titles and embarrassed bitter Rivals Real Madrid several times, including a 6-2 win in the Bernabeu, and a 5-0 win in the Nou Camp, both with Pep as manager. To add more to Barca's dominance under Guardiola, they set a new record high 99 points accumulated in a La Liga season, and became the first team ever to win six trophies in one calendar year. Throughout these same years, Barcelona have been crowned world champions three times, two of them coming under Pep, and are the most successful club in that competition.

The definition of success depends largely on the targets that you set yourself, which is influenced by so many factors. Just look at any kind of long distance race. You will see the professionals competing to win and to hit personal bests. Those at the back may just be happy to finish a race without dying. I'm more the latter, and there are many people in between. An old man in his fifties or sixties may complete a marathon in seven hours, finishing near the back, but could be thrilled with that, having perhaps never ran so far before, and maybe raising a significant amount of money along the way. To a professional, seven hours is woefully embarrassing. The same is true in football. Teams that are promoted into the top division are often just happy to finish above the bottom three. No newly promoted side from the Championship will be upset if they don't win the Premier League within their first season, or even their first five seasons. Mid-table is a wonderful achievement for such a team. Top six would be amazing. Top four, unheard of. Champions? Not in this day and age. Obviously we have the rise of Leicester City this season, and Hoffenheim who shocked the Bundesliga a few years back.

Playing the game just like it's FIFA on Xbox. Easy.

What all this goes to show is just how hard it is to break into the elite circles. In England, it is supremely difficult, with only six teams claiming a top four place in the last ten seasons. Only three of those six have won the league in that time, and twice has an English team won the Champions League in those same years. The way that Spurs and Man City crashed the party was by spending huge sums of money, often outspending their competitors. They had to close the gap. Spurs and Man City have also tried and failed many times to find the right combination of players and manager. Liverpool, since losing their consistent top four status, have been scrambling to find someone to lead them back to where they feel they belong. Now even with the money that Man City have spent, it took them four seasons to win the title, and three attempts to qualify from the group stage of the Champions League. In 2008 they spent £32.5million on Robinho, breaking the British transfer record. The following season they spent over £100million on players, only to finish in fifth place. This is just a very small indication of the amount of investment that needs to be made to close the gap and find those inches.

Listed below are the teams that have been included in the Premier League in the last ten years.

Manchester United 10
Liverpool 10
Arsenal 10
Spurs 10
Chelsea 10
Aston Villa 10
Everton 10
Man City 10
Newcastle 9
Fulham 9
West Ham 9
Sunderland 8
Wigan 8
West Brom 7
Stoke 7
Bolton 7
Blackburn 7
Portsmouth 6
Swansea 4
Hull 4
Norwich 4
Middlesbrough 4
Birmingham 4
QPR 3
Reading 3
Wolves 3
Crystal Palace 2
Burnley 2
Charlton 2
Southampton 2
Cardiff 1
Blackpool 1
Derby 1
Sheffield United 1
Watford 1
Leicester 1

That shows that over ten years, thirty six different teams have competed in a Premier League season. That's almost enough to have two leagues. Six teams have only spent one season in the league, and eight teams have spent all ten seasons in the league. There have been three different champions, in Man Utd, Man City, and Chelsea. Remember from earlier that only six of these teams have finished once or more in the top four. Two of them, Chelsea and Manchester United, have both won one Champions League.

Getting into the Premier League is a difficult task. Staying in the Premier League is a difficult task. Finishing in the top half of the Premier League is a difficult task. Finishing in the top four of the Premier League is a difficult task. Winning the Premier League is a difficult task. Dominating Premier League titles is a difficult task. Winning the Champions League is a difficult task.

The above table shows the amount of places available depending upon your target in the Premier League. Seventeen teams can avoid relegation, whereas only one can win it. This may be obvious, and some may feel I am insulting their intelligence, but there is a reason for it. I am breaking things down and moving up slowly. To avoid relegation, you need to be better than three teams. To win the league, you need to be better than nineteen. Again, simple maths, but it does illustrate the size of the task.

FLUKE!

It's quite easy comparatively, although no mean feat, to become one of the best. You have to copy them, essentially. I am over simplifying things and will expand upon this later. To beat the best, to be the champion, you have to be better than the best. You need to improve in areas that they can't even consider. You have to be forward thinking. From personal experience, I have made many crap teams become average, and many average teams become good. The people remember me fondly, and I do feel that it was a successful period. As a quick example, my 2001 Girls team in Mexico. I was with them for three six month seasons. In the first season, they overachieved by making the playoffs when playing in a league that was a little too difficult for them as it required them to play up an age group due to low numbers. In the second season, it was more age appropriate, though we still had ten year olds playing in a league with fourteen year olds. We were playing in a 2000 league, and had just two 2001 players. We occasionally borrowed one or two 2000 players, but the large majority of the team was made up of 2002 and 2003 players, with some 2004s and even a 2005. So no one expected anything of us. In that season, we lost just one regular season game, playing the whole time without a recognised goalkeeper. How did we do it? We worked on shape, game understanding, ball retention, and defending. We went into the playoffs with a strange sense of optimism, winning the quarter final, and then having a horrific experience in the semi, which had nothing to do with football, but that's another story for another time. Just through a more inclusive management style, a better organised team, improved team spirit, better educated players, we jumped way up the league to come third out of fourteen. What an achievement! To get to first place, however, or to progress to and win the final, although apparently only inches away, was actually lightyears. I had made the players good, and I had made the team good, but they weren't great, not yet. I had unfinished business out there.

So why won't a manager like Allardyce ever be selected by a top four club? His pound for point ratio is incredible, and makes him the shrewdest manager that the Premier League has ever seen. What Big Sam did at Bolton and then at Blackburn was incredible, but he won't ever be England manager, and whenever Abramovich fires a successful coach for not winning a game, he never considers Big Sam. Like I said earlier, I'd love to see him given a chance at a club like that, but it won't happen. He's dirty, he's unattractive, he's pragmatic, he's hard working. I'd say he is just as ruthless and driven as Pep and Mourinho, so what's missing? It's hard to say, and I think it is a contribution of a few different things. Perhaps it is because he has never broken the top four, has a limited trophy haul, is not used to working with star players in their prime, and does not administer attacking and intricate football. Allardyce at Barcelona just wouldn't go down with the fans. They'd have visions of Pique launching the ball forward to Neymar, and expecting Suarez to score off the knock downs. Messi would be too short to be in the squad. Or would that actually happen? Would Sam, with those players at his disposal, not play to their strengths? When asked, he's always maintained that's what he'd do. That's why he is notorious for long ball football at his clubs, because he is playing to their strengths.

Does it take a lot more skill to teach and to coach the tiki taka of Barcelona and Spain than the long ball of traditional England? Hell yes it does! Trying to get players to play with freedom, confidence, and yet have the high levels of discipline that they do takes incredible skill. Have a look at any park on a Sunday morning, and you'll see many short term gain coaches telling their big defender to hoof it to the fast kid up front. How many of them have the patience and the know-how to work at combination play, overlaps, third man runs, positional rotation, false nine etc? That's hard, it really is. Pep didn't just coach Barcelona well, he coached them to be the best team that there ever was. He's just about to win his third successive title with Bayern in his third and final season, unless things completely implode, being eight points clear at the top with only nineteen out of the thirty four games being played. In his first season in Munich, they won the title by nineteen points, then by ten in the second season. That's surely impressive in anyone's book, but to some it won't be. Bayern are a super power of world football in what can sometimes be a one horse league.

An amazing footballing education right there.

To many, being a football manager seems to be the easiest job in the world. I know from the amount of people who tell me how to do it better. The thing is though, I have the balls to do it. I put my neck on the line. I risk my reputation, I risk my livelihood. I travel across the globe in the pursuit of success. That's the first step. How many could actually do that? It's far easier to criticise from the safety of the stands, or even from a sofa, fireside, placed in front of a television. Get off your fat lazy backside and have a go, or quit your whining. But that won't happen. We don't want to open ourselves up to criticism. We don't want to leave our comfort zone. No no no. These people genuinely do believe that managing football is as simple as putting the eleven best players into their positions, psyching them up a bit before the game, and then shouting occasional instructions from the sidelines. It's laughable. The difference in perception between the experts and the public is huge, and this is true for every industry on the planet. But what do experts know anyway?

The day to day running of a football club takes into account so much more than just pondering over your starting eleven. You cannot ever turn off coach mode. It's always on. When you're watching a movie with your family, when you're having a dump, when you're at work (if you're only part time, or have many teams). It's always on your mind. Every time the phone goes, you wonder what bad news about the game, a player, the team, that it could be. You put off your own personal ambitions and needs in order to develop the team. Guardiola is obsessed with football. Most top managers are. Sleep is a luxury, and even that is constantly interrupted by the anxiety that the job creates. Pep would often spend hours watching and rewatching games during the immediate hours after the final whistle. It's unhealthy. The average man cannot devote that much time to football, and will not have enough know-how to spot the tactical nuances that can defeat heavy weights like Real Madrid, Atletico, and Valencia.

You'll be amazed at how many teams and players get this
completely wrong at all levels of the game.

It's easy when you're spending money, right? If you've never done it, you have no idea just how difficult it is to spend someone else's money, or to manage someone else's budget. Shame, guilt, fear, anxiety etc. although not tangible, are real emotions that can cloud judgement. To buy Neymar was a huge gamble. It was a massive amount of money, and what if he was a flop? He'd not proven before that he could hack it in Europe, and had many doubters. That's pressure that we will struggle to relate to.

In the sextuple year, Barca used twenty seven different players, playing a total of sixty six games. In the same period, Real Madrid played forty eight games between twenty six players. This means that Barca had to fit in eighteen more competitive games that year than Real Madrid, and only used one more player than their bitter rivals. Although hard to find stats on 10th and 20th place, Deportivo La Coruna and Xerez, one could rightfully assume they they did not play more than forty or so games that season, having not been in European competition, and probably not progressing very far in the cup. It's a lot to ask of one group of players. Furthermore, lest we not forget, Barcelona can never take their foot off the accelerator. All top teams know this. Every game you play, every time you come up against an opponent, you are their biggest game of the season. You are the team that everyone wants to beat, and that everyone wants to try their best against. One could perhaps make the case that some Spanish teams do roll over and die when Barca and Real come to town, as they know they will get nothing out of it, but that does more to point towards the inequality of the Spanish market than it does to detract from Barca's dominance. Out of those fifty nine games, how many of them were cup finals? Literally, six of them. Six of those were cup finals. Figuratively, most of them. If you don't bring your A game to Barcelona, you're in for a sore bum. Even if you do bring your A game, you quite often still go home with a sore bum.

Okay, okay, okay. So Pep's Barcelona was perhaps the best engineered footballing side of all time. A lot of them came through the youth ranks together, have ate, slept, and drank together since they were kids, and have been brought up playing the Barcelona way, having such a mantra ingrained in their brains. That means that pretty much any half decent coach could go in there and do well, essentially working on auto-pilot, while the team picks up trophy after trophy. Xavi and Iniesta had a telepathic like connection, and with Messi's wizardry, what impact could a coach possibly have? Well, many would describe Frank Rijkaard as a half decent coach. He did win the Champions League in 2006. Got to be at least half decent to do that. What was Guardiola doing in the years before managing the Barcelona first team? He was managing their reserves, and educating players to see part of his grand vision of amazing football. He was essentially sewing the seeds for the one day he would get his chance in the hotseat. Did he inherit a quality team? Absolutely, but that's only a job half done. He had to make some big decisions, which involved stars like Ibrahimovic, Deco, Eto'o, Ronaldinho, and by and large got them all right. He brought up youngsters like Busquets, who then became an integral part of his team. He began to play centre midfielders in defence, as it meant the range of passing from the back would be better, allowing penetration to occur quicker and more effectively, whilst improving the ability to play backwards and recycle. This is fine tuning.

"A long time ago, we used to be friends, but I...
haven't thought of you lately at all"

I do find myself often making comparisons between football and rock bands. You don't have to be too into music to get these. Why do the songs of the biggest bands still have a legacy and a relevance today? Why did bands like The Beatles, Black Sabbath, Rolling Stones, Led Zeppelin, AC/DC, Deep Purple etc. out-sell every other band from their time and our time? Because of their absolute undeniable quality. Take Queen for example. Freddy Mercury died a long time ago, and they haven't done anything new since. All four members of that band were virtuoso performers that had an incredible talent for song writing and performing. Other bands from the time would pop up and offer us some good hits, some that are still played today, and once or twice they could compete with the big bands. Think The Cult, famously known for She Sells Sanctuary. It's a cracking song, and they have a couple others I like. I often get that riff in my head, and love to drive to it. It's like that one time that Blackburn Rovers won the Premier League. That one time, they were good enough. That one time, they were the best. Did that one time cement their place as a great team? Absolutely not. They couldn't retain it, and could no longer challenge at the top. Rovers weren't good enough for long enough. Try reading any of the following without a song popping into your head:

Oooh I need your love, Babe...
Strawberry fields...
It's been a hard day's night...
Living is easy with eyes closed...
Sweet Loretta Martin thought she was a woman...
She said she loves you, and you know that can't be bad...
I got a ticket to ride...
When I was young but so much younger than todaaaayyyy...
Hey Jude, don't make it bad...
All you need is love...
Here comes the sun...
Yesterday, all my troubles seemed so far away...
You say goodbye, and I say hello...
Well she was just seventeen, if you know what I mean...
In the town, where I was born, there lived a man...
I am the eggman, they are the eggmen...
What would you do if I sang out of tune...
Penny Lane is in my ears and in my eyes...
Love, love me do...
Here come old flat top, he come groovin' up slowly...

Most people reading would have read a lot of those in the voices of either Lennon, McCartney, or Harrison. If it hasn't had such an effect on you, and you don't know what any of it means, these are all hit songs that are still well known today (apparently), which were all released by the same band. THAT PLAYED THEIR OWN INSTRUMENTS!!!! AND WROTE THEIR OWN SONGS!!!! AND WEREN'T SELECTED BY THE AUDIENCE TEXTING TO CHOOSE A FAVOURITE!!!! AND HAD NO INVOLVEMENT WITH SIMON COWELL WHATSOEVER!!!! To those who are twenty three and under, you may need to take a moment to recover after reading what, although shocking, is actually true. That's greatness. That's life changing, Earth shattering greatness. The Cult would be the first to tell you that they do not match up to The Beatles, but you would be hard pressed to not find yourself building up speed if listening to Fire Woman on full blast while driving down the motorway at night. Pep's Barcelona weren't just good once, they weren't just great a few times, they became the best ever, and proved it time and time again.

Just like these guys were part of a revolution in music,

Pep's Barcelona were part of a revolution in football.

There's definitely a case for right manager, right time. This process is repeated in the English Championship until a club finds a fit for their players, and makes a run into the Premier League. Inevitably they get relegated a year or two later, the manager looks for a new club, and fails to repeat that same success anywhere else. Could Mourinho have dominated in the same way Guardiola did? I certainly believe that Mourinho would have been very successful at Barcelona. like he has been anywhere, but football would have been worse off for it. I have studied a lot of Guardiola's work and Mourinho's work, as a lot of coaches have. Mourinho is pragmatic, systematic, obsessed, maniacally brilliant. I have found books and videos of him to be mind blowing. He wants to win, and is very good at it. He has a playing philosophy, an idealistic view of how to play the game, and is an incredible man manager. He's brilliant. What he hasn't done is change football. His teams play a lot of park the bus or counter-attack. While they have been very good at it, it's not necessarily revolutionary. 

Look back at the way football has changed or been influenced by certain trends over the decades. There have been key points where a progression was marked that began a new era. It usually coincides with a club team doing fantastically well, which then has a huge impact on not just the league, but also the national team. Total Football, brought in by the Dutch and pioneered in Amsterdam, changed football. Ajax won three consecutive European Cups. For two seasons, they were unbeaten at home, winning forty six out of forty six games. This made other Dutch teams like PSV and Feyenoord stronger, and turned the Dutch national team into the greatest side to not win a World Cup, being defeated twice in the final. The man given the credit for Totaalvoetbal is Rinus Michels, taking his philosophy from Ajax to Barcelona and the Dutch national team. Was he solely responsible for it? Of course not. Was he influenced largely by others? Absolutely. Does that make what he and his teams did any less special? Not at all. Credit should be given to the Austrian Wunderteam, and the Magical Magyars of Hungary. Michels played under Jack Reynolds, who was an early purporter of this type of football. He refined it at Ajax, and from there emerged a world great in the form of Johann Cruyff. Twenty years later, Cruyff is the manager of a very successful Barcelona team, that featured Guardiola in the midfield. Twenty years later, Guardiola takes a lot of those ideas for when he is manager of Barcelona, creating tiki taka (though that was never his term) and out comes another world great in Lionel Messi. Fabulous how the cycle repeats itself all the way from Jack Reynolds to Lionel Messi.

Any coach could achieve these numbers with this team, right?

For anyone who has read Malcolm Gladwell's book, you will know what I mean with an Outliers reference. For anyone who has not had such a mind boggling experience, you owe it to y

ourself to discover the work. No example I could use could possibly do it justice. If we follow on along the lines of the right place right time theory, we see how that has been true throughout all of history. Everyone who achieved greatness did so because they had the opportunity to do so. They also worked incredibly hard and had an obsession with their talent, but none of that could have been realised without opportunity. Bill Gates, for example, the brilliant mind that he is, would not be where he is today if he didn't happen to live within walking distance of one of the only universities in the world to have such an advanced computer, that was open to the public and to students to use as they please. Sure, he had to then take that opportunity, work really hard, and fail many times, but he still had the opportunity. Do you think young Pep at La Masia as a schoolboy, crying himself to sleep as he missed his family, knew that one day he would change the game forever? Of course he didn't, but had he not been introduced to football at a young age, allowed to play in his hometown, spotted by Barca scouts, given the La Masia education, been coached by Cruyff, Robson, and many others, played with Romario, Ronaldo, Stoichkov etc al. he would not be the great coach he is today. It's all about opportunity. It doesn't detract from his abilities or achievements at all to point this out, as we are all largely products of our environment. What it does show is that he was absolutely, 100% the only man who could have achieved this, and that Barcelona was 100% the only club he could have achieved it at. 

Will he be a success at Manchester City? Depends how you define success. If winning the Premier League more often than not is success, then he will probably do that. If making Manchester City a dominating force in Europe is the goal, then no one has ever done that before. Nigel Clough took Nottingham Forest European victory two years running. That was amazing. It's a completely different era nowadays, so difficult to make comparisons on what would be easier to do, and would be futile and pointless. Pep will have seemingly unlimited resources, be moving into a team that already has plenty of stars, including a lot of Spanish speakers, that knows the league well, and will be desperate for his tutelage (apart from Yaya Toure), and should, barring a massive cock up, be playing in the Champions League next season. It seems like some pretty good ingredients to build a dominating force.                                                                        

  

Still sells, right? Just like Rovers' 94/95 DVD.

It's the final inch that is so hard to get. At the top, it comes down to inches and seconds. Anything could affect those tiny seconds. There are millions of decisions to be made along the way, and each wrong one could add precious seconds to your time. You could get it 95% right, which under most circumstances would be incredible, but your opponent may get it 96% right. How do you improve that tiny bit more? How do you squeeze out that extra drop of juice? How do you make up that ground when you're already giving it your all? Pep knows, and he will show us.

Further reading

A brief glimpse into a Mourinho training session. Jose loves his marginal gains. The coaching staff and players wear different kit so that coaches can be easily distinguished when training. Probably not the first coach to do this, but not enough make this small adjustment. My players train in red and black, whereas I sport this wonderful orange and blue number. Mourinho knows several languages, something that we should all be better at, thus making him an expert communicator. I would now feel confident taking a job in Spain or Latin America, but what about if something comes up in France or Germany? They wouldn't wait three months for me to learn the language before I begin coaching. Mourinho has a vision, creates intensity, commands respect, creates a bond with his team using his Us v The World mentality. He's simply brilliant.

Special One Interview. Speaks for itself.

Guardiola working with Bayern at a training camp in Doha. This clip was famous for how intense he was. If you listen carefully, you can make out bits of English and Spanish in between his German. Notice that both Pep and Jose coach with their notes. Both the FA and USSF would fail you for that.

Thierry Henry briefly explaining Pep's genius. This is like porn to coaches.

This one, in Spanish, provides some examples of Guardiola's playing philosophy in action at Bayern Munich.

An interview with Pep while at Bayern, explaining some of his ideas, showing already his impressive command of the English language.

http://gladwell.com/outliers/outliers-q-and-a-with-malcolm/ - Read this and buy the book. You owe it to yourself. Your understanding of how success becomes a reality will be forever changed for the better.

Sky Sports documentary based on the book Another Way of Winning. This book explains in some detail the neurotic genius of Guardiola. Truly fascinating to anyone with an interest in football.